Sinai, seen by young Egyptians whom never witnessed the wars, as a haven for peace, partying, beaches, and plenty of under-developed infrastructure. Seen by the elder Egyptians who actually lived the wars, as a place that has witnessed every Egyptian-Israeli conflict, until the peace agreement some 40 years ago. An Agreement that prohibited Egypt from deploying its strong arsenal in its lands, in return for peace with Israel that is.
Developing Sinai was the only thing awaiting it after its liberation from Israeli occupation, and indeed, the following years, the 60,000 km2 peninsula (triple the size of Israel) has seen massive private development in the Tourism and agriculture sectors. something that has pushed its population up to over 1,300,000 citizen and where none of its 600,000 native Bedouins either have the right to own their lands, or participate in the military service.
Economically, the peninsula has not seen major infrastructure improvements, even though it has great potential for agriculture, and trade development, but its vast deserts has left little interest in developing the heart of its lands, and made the private investors only seek developing its beautiful famous beaches and shores that attract millions of annual tourists.
Demographically, the peninsula has a majority of Bedouin Tribesmen who benefited from the tourism development, but some remained to use the lack of military and police existence in the lands to survive on illegal trade, drugs and weapons. Meanwhile, the radical Islamists whom have been living in a haven of unsecured lands, (due to the peace agreement) have been flourishing for 40 years.
Following the 25th January revolution, the Bedouins have returned to back to their drugs and weapons business, due to the lack of tourism, in the peninsula, and lack of control over weapons business with nearby chaotic Gaza.
Having that said, we need to know the scenarios of what happened. the official story that all seems to agree on is that a group of "terrorists" attacked the border point with Israel of Karam Salem, killing roughly 15 Egyptian guard, stealing two of their armored Vehicals and invading Israel with them, naturally Israel destroyed them both.
Scenario #1 - Israel
Usually, when ANYTHING happens in Sinai, the public tends to automatically blame it on Israel, our "eternal" enemy, with people saying that they are the only people to benefit from such attacks.
Only reason why Israel would do such thing is to highlight the militias problems in Sinai, and force the Egyptian public to pressure its newly elected Government to end the tunnels from Sinai to Gaza, which helps these "insurgents" whom are causing instability to the peninsula.OK, lets be reasonable, why would Israel risk peace with the Strongest Arab state and ask for an open war with Egypt, when they are facing huge threats from Iran, and are terrified from what is going on in Syria? Why would the state of Israel, that currently has Ehud Barak as Minister of Defense, (previous Prime minister of Israel) whom happens to be one of the best peace calling Politicians in the country, to spark a war or tensions against Egypt?Why would Israel risk the fragile peace with Egypt just to kill 15 soldiers?
Scenario #2 - Jihadists
Which happens to be the Official story shared by the other groups so far. This could be true to an extent, but Jihadists in Sinai are not rich enough to carry out such attacks without either the finance, help or orders of others, and why would the "Islamist" Jihadists carry out such an attack. President Morsi, who happened to free 12 of the "الجماعة الإسلاميه" (associated with Terrorism in Egypt, including Assassination of Sadat, and Mubarak attempt) is probably seen as an idol, for freeing people that share the same ideology, so such attacks from the Jihadists, just two days after their "brothers" were freed would cause some embarrassment to the newly Elected "Islamist" President.
Scenario #3 - Ikhwan / Morsi
I believe in this phrase of "History repeats itself", and following every revolution in History, the most powerful group always comes in power, and this group usually tends to eliminate any possible political power that could take control. so how does the successful power eliminate and align the public behind its legitimacy?Gamal Abdel-Nasser aligned his opposition behind him when he announced that the Foreigners and Jews where stealing the Egyptians from their economy, and had a huge inside battle against them. Sadat did the same when he called for "Infitah" or the policy of opening the door, which angered his 1952 coup colleagues, and ended with him eliminating them in what he called "thawret al-Tasheeh" (correction revolt). Similar to what Nasser did happened in almost all revolutions. it was obvious to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) that the civil power was far to strong to be eliminated right now, and it seems that he has been lately trying to attract them, with meeting with the US regime, and talks of stability with Israel, and the Independence of Media (which has been attacked recently by extremists), perhaps he is trying to align the public opinion that is currently outraged from the MB, and are calling for a revolution against the Ikhwan this month. Could the MB pushed the Jihadists to launch such stunt to show Morsi's strong image, and a leader that has an iron fist? Could Morsi and the MB actually doing these acts, to make the public fear an intervention from Israel in Sinai, which would align all Egyptians behind the president? Are they trying to impose a shared Enemy to Unify the public again, and to manage to win any nearby parliamentary Elections?
Scenario #4 - SCAF
Another possible scenario for SCAF is that it wishes to keep its Military budget secret, and be able to take as much tax money as they wish, with the plea of securing Sinai.
To conclude this very long article, i just believe that we must learn not to always Blame Israel for all our problems, truth is, we have a lot of idiots running around this country saying and doing things that are not helpful for a strong powerful SOVEREIGN country. We must not be fooled by our Media, nor Our Corrupt Education, that has made us believe anything that is said from our officials, regardless how angelic they may seem, they all have their own agendas. We must LEARN to Stop, think, and decide for ourselves what to believe. Obviously i for one do not know what to believe, and can only hope for the future to reveal those behind these actions, and to be punished by an independent judicial system.
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